Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Inertial Confinement Fusion Simulations

During the numerical modeling of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) simulations, the modeler is faced with uncertainty assigning values to parameters that are difficult to estimate. As a result, the uncertainties that are introduced into the numerical modeling result in uncertainty in the solution.  To illustrate this process, we use the University of Chicago High Energy Density Physics code called FLASH to simulate a DT laden capsule in an ICF like setting, for which good quality experimental data is available. In the first stage, we implement transport models based off of molecular dynamics simulations for weakly and strongly coupled plasma regimes. These models included mass diffusion, viscous diffusion and thermal conduction. In the second stage, we vary several input parameters within a range of reasonable values and compare the results to our baseline simulation and observed experimental values. The results of the plasma transport models, considered jointly, provide a clearer picture of the uncertainty and the sensitivity in our current simulations of ICF pellets.